ترجمۀ اقتصادی – متن ۳

ترجمۀ اقتصادی – متن شمارۀ ۳

یکشنبه، ۹ اسفند ۹۴

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We have seen that if there is too low a level of demand in an economy, the result is unemployment: during the 1920s and 1930s there was too little demand in Britain, and the consequence was prolonged unemployment. But what happens if there is too much demand in an economy? What is the opposite of unemployment? Naturally, Keynes did not devote a great deal of the General Theory to this question, but nevertheless he did answer it quite clearly. What one means by saying that there is too much demand in the economy is, to put it rather loosely, that the economy is already going flat out, with full employment of men and machinery, so that output is at its highest possible level — and that there is then an increase in demand. This increase in demand cannot call forth more output. All it can do is one of two things: either it can pull up the price of the goods and services that are already being produced. Or, in an economy with trades with other countries, it can increase the quantity of goods available — but only by sucking in more imports. In practice, an excessive level of demand will probably result in some of each; there will be some rise in prices, and imports will be higher, and exports lower than they would otherwise have been.

Now anyone who has lived in post-war Britain will observe that there is something familiar about this: rising prices, too low a level of exports, too high a level of imports; surely these are at the heart of our post-war economic problems. If Keynes’s analysis showed us how to prevent unemployment by ensuring that there is enough demand in the economy, why has it not also shown us how to prevent rising prices and balance of payments crises by avoiding too much demand?

ترجمۀ اقتصادی – متن ۲

ترجمۀ اقتصادی – متن ۲

Unemployment

The unemployment rate tells macroeconomists how many people from the available pool of labour (the labour force) are unable to find work.

Macroeconomists have come to agree that when the economy has witnessed growth from period to period, which is indicated in the GDP growth rate, unemployment levels tend to be low. This is because with rising (real) GDP levels, we know that output is higher, and, hence, more labourers are needed to keep up with the greater levels of production.

Inflation

The third main factor that macroeconomists look at is the inflation rate, or the rate at which prices rise. Inflation is primarily measured in two ways: through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the GDP deflator. The CPI gives the current price of a selected basket of goods and services that is updated periodically. The GDP deflator is the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP.

If nominal GDP is higher than real GDP, we can assume that the prices of goods and services has been rising. Both the CPI and GDP deflator tend to move in the same direction and differ by less than 1%.

Demand and Disposable Income

What ultimately determines output is demand. Demand comes from consumers (for investment or savings, etc.), from the government (spending on goods and services of federal employees), and from imports and exports.